Famous Decisions

BusinessFragile decision1975–20128 min read

Kodak: the buried invention

Management Kodak

In 1975, engineer Steve Sasson invented the first digital camera in Kodak's labs. Management decided to bury the innovation to avoid cannibalizing the film business. In 2012, Kodak filed for bankruptcy.

BusinessFragile decision20007 min read

Blockbuster: the $50 million that cost an empire

John Antioco, CEO Blockbuster

In 2000, Reed Hastings and Marc Randolph offered Blockbuster the chance to buy Netflix for $50 million. CEO John Antioco declined. Netflix is now worth over $250 billion. Blockbuster closed in 2010.

BusinessSound decision2007–20138 min read

Netflix: from red envelopes to streaming empire

Reed Hastings, CEO Netflix

In 2007, Netflix launched its streaming service while maintaining its DVD core business. In 6 years it went from 7.5 million DVD subscribers to over 44 million streaming users. Today it's worth over $250 billion. A decision the DAMM framework rates as structurally sound.

PoliticsFragile decision20169 min read

Brexit: the referendum nobody planned to lose

David Cameron, Primo Ministro UK

In 2013, David Cameron promised an EU referendum to appease the Eurosceptic wing of his party. In 2016, the referendum was held and Leave won 51.9% to 48.1%. Cameron resigned. The estimated economic cost by 2024 exceeds £100 billion.

PoliticsSound decision1948–19529 min read

Marshall Plan: investing in yesterday's enemy

George C. Marshall / Harry Truman

In 1948, the US launched the Marshall Plan: $13 billion (equivalent to approximately $170 billion today) to rebuild war-devastated Europe. It was a counterintuitive decision that generated stability, trade alliances, and a world order lasting decades.

PoliticsMixed outcome20209 min read

COVID Italy: the decision to shut everything down

Giuseppe Conte, Presidente del Consiglio

On March 9, 2020, Italy became the first Western country to impose a national lockdown for COVID-19. An unprecedented decision, made under extreme pressure with incomplete data. Analyzed through the DAMM framework, it shows both structural strengths and weaknesses.

BusinessFragile decision2022–202410 min read

Twitter/X: $44 billion for an idea without a plan

Elon Musk

In April 2022, Elon Musk launched a $44 billion offer to acquire Twitter. He then tried to withdraw, was legally forced to complete the purchase, fired 80% of staff, and rebranded the platform "X." By 2024, its estimated value had dropped to about $12 billion.

BusinessFragile decision202310 min read

OpenAI: the firing that lasted 5 days

Board OpenAI

On November 17, 2023, OpenAI's board fired CEO Sam Altman, accusing him of not being "consistently candid." In 5 days, 95% of employees threatened to quit, Microsoft offered Altman asylum, and the board was forced to reinstate him. A textbook case of a non-minimum move.

BusinessSound decision2022–20248 min read

NVIDIA — The AI bet that created the world's most valuable company

Jensen Huang (CEO)

NVIDIA invested for a decade in AI-optimized hardware, finding itself ready when demand exploded with ChatGPT. A decision built incrementally, with perfect margin and asymmetry.

BusinessSound decision2014–20249 min read

Satya Nadella — Microsoft's turnaround: from declining giant to global leader

Satya Nadella (CEO)

When Nadella became CEO in 2014, Microsoft was considered irrelevant. In 10 years he relaunched the company with a series of calibrated moves: cloud-first, open source, and the OpenAI investment.

BusinessSound decision1997–20119 min read

Apple — Steve Jobs' return: from 90 days to bankruptcy to global leader

Steve Jobs (CEO)

In 1997 Apple was 90 days from bankruptcy. Jobs returned, drastically cut the product line, and built a sequence of moves — iMac, iPod, iTunes, iPhone — that transformed Apple into the world's most valuable company.

BusinessFragile decision2007–20139 min read

Nokia — The giant's collapse: how the world's phone leader lost everything in 6 years

Stephen Elop (CEO) / Board Nokia

In 2007 Nokia dominated the global phone market with 50% share. In 6 years, a series of structurally fragile decisions — from stubbornly clinging to Symbian to the all-in leap on Windows Phone — led to selling its mobile division to Microsoft.

BusinessFragile decision20088 min read

Lehman Brothers — The collapse that triggered the global financial crisis

Richard Fuld (CEO)

Lehman Brothers operated at 30:1 leverage concentrated in subprime securities. When the bubble burst, CEO Richard Fuld refused every opportunity to sell. On September 15, 2008, Lehman filed for bankruptcy — $639 billion in assets, the largest in US history.

BusinessONGOINGFragile decision2017–20269 min read

Boeing 737 MAX: the price of rushing

Dennis Muilenburg, CEO Boeing

Boeing is finally settling its 737 MAX accounts. In May 2025, the DoJ reached a non-prosecution agreement. Spirit AeroSystems was reacquired for $4.7B bringing fuselage production back in-house. The MAX 7 is weeks from FAA certification (expected August 2026), with 24 aircraft already parked and ready for Southwest. But the total cost — 346 lives, $20B+ in losses, a decade of reputational crisis — remains the most extreme case of an ignored minimum move.

BusinessSound decision2019–20258 min read

SpaceX Starship: failure as an accelerator

Elon Musk, CEO SpaceX

While Boeing spent billions on the SLS program seeking first-try perfection, SpaceX chose the opposite approach: build cheap Starship prototypes, test rapidly, let them explode, analyze data, iterate. By 2025, Starship successfully completed booster recovery.

BusinessFragile decision2021–20259 min read

Meta and the Metaverse: the $40 billion bet

Mark Zuckerberg, CEO Meta

In October 2021, Zuckerberg renamed Facebook to Meta and announced the company's future was the metaverse. Reality Labs burned over $40 billion with growing losses and minimal adoption. In 2023-2024, Zuckerberg quietly shifted focus to AI, implicitly admitting the bet didn't work as planned.

BusinessONGOINGMixed outcome2025–20269 min read

Trump Tariffs: the global supply chain dilemma

CEO globali / Aziende esportatrici USA

After the Supreme Court's IEEPA ruling (6-3, February 2026) and the CIT declaring Section 122 tariffs unlawful (May 2026, then stayed on appeal June 11), the Trump administration launched new Section 301 tariffs on 60 countries for "forced labor" (10-12.5%), designed to replace Section 122 when it expires July 24. Public hearings were held July 7-9, 2026. Companies must decide now: restructure, absorb costs, or bet that courts will block this authority too.

BusinessONGOINGMixed outcome2025–20269 min read

Intel Foundry: the 18A node gamble

Lip-Bu Tan, CEO Intel

Breakthrough for Intel Foundry: in June 2026, Apple signed a preliminary agreement to manufacture chips on the 18A-P node — the first non-TSMC partner for Apple Silicon. Tesla committed to the 14A node for the Terafab complex, Google is exploring EMIB packaging. 18A yields are improving 7-8% monthly with capacity at 30,000 wafers/month. The fabless option has effectively been shelved.

BusinessONGOINGMixed outcome2024–20268 min read

EU AI Act: the compliance race

CEO aziende tech globali

Breakthrough on May 7, 2026: the Digital Omnibus political agreement defers high-risk AI obligations (Annex III) to December 2, 2027, and regulated product obligations (Annex I) to August 2, 2028. But Article 50 transparency obligations — chatbots, deepfakes, AI content — remain at August 2, 2026. New bans on AI nudifiers and CSAM. Fines up to EUR 15M or 3% of turnover for transparency violations.

PoliticsONGOINGMixed outcome20269 min read

Meloni-Trump: the 2026 diplomatic crisis

Giorgia Meloni, Presidente del Consiglio

The crisis intensified: on July 6, Trump posted a meme on Truth Social reading "RESTRAINING ORDER NEEDED." At the NATO Ankara summit (July 7-8), Meloni arrived at the last second to avoid the forced face-to-face. No bilateral with Trump, but Tajani had a cordial meeting with Rubio. Operational channels hold, but the personal relationship is compromised. Italy is gradually repositioning toward European partners.

BusinessFragile decision2022–20247 min read

Air Canada: the AI chatbot without guardrails

Air Canada

In 2022, Air Canada's chatbot invented a bereavement refund policy that never existed. When the customer claimed the refund, the company denied it and argued in court the bot was "a separate legal entity." The judge rejected the argument and set a precedent: a company is responsible for what its AI agent says.

BusinessFragile decision20237 min read

Chevrolet: the chatbot that sold a Tahoe for 1 dollar

Chevrolet of Watsonville

In December 2023 a Chevrolet dealership deployed a ChatGPT-based chatbot. A user told it to agree with anything the customer said and asked for a 2024 Chevy Tahoe for 1 dollar. The bot accepted: "a legally binding offer, no takesies backsies." The screenshot passed 20 million views.

BusinessFragile decision20218 min read

Zillow Offers: the algorithm that bought 7,000 wrong houses

Zillow (Rich Barton, CEO)

In 2021 Zillow shut down Zillow Offers, its algorithm-driven iBuying division. The model systematically overestimated home values in a volatile market: Zillow bought about 7,000 homes across 25 cities and could not resell them without losses. Over $540 million in write-downs and a 25% workforce cut.

BusinessFragile decision20168 min read

Microsoft Tay: the chatbot that learned hate in a day

Microsoft

On March 23, 2016, Microsoft launched "Tay" on Twitter, a chatbot designed to learn from interactions. Coordinated groups of users flooded the bot with offensive content, exploiting its learning mechanism: in about 16 hours Tay began posting racist, sexist, and antisemitic tweets. Microsoft removed it within 24 hours.

PoliticsFragile decision2013–20217 min read

The Dutch childcare benefits scandal: the algorithm with no trail

Belastingdienst (fisco olandese)

The Dutch tax authority used an automated risk model to detect childcare-benefit fraud. Around 26,000 families were wrongly accused and forced to repay tens of thousands of euros. In 2021 the government resigned. The real flaw: no trail of how and why the decisions were made.